港股早参丨美国8月“小非农”数据不及预期，美联储9月降息概率超99%

Market Overview - On September 4, Hong Kong's three major indices declined, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.12% to 25,058.51 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.85% to 5,578.86 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreasing by 1.25% to 8,937.09 points [1] - The market saw significant weakness in sectors such as metals and pharmaceuticals, while semiconductor and robotics concepts also experienced declines [1] Southbound Capital - On September 4, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 706 million HKD, with Alibaba seeing net inflows for 10 consecutive days [2] - Year-to-date, the cumulative net inflow of southbound capital has reached 1,006.435 billion HKD, significantly surpassing the total net inflow for the entire previous year [2] U.S. Market Performance - Following disappointing "small non-farm" data, U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.77%, S&P 500 rising 0.83%, and Nasdaq increasing by 0.98% [3] - Notable performers included Amazon, which rose over 4%, and Goldman Sachs, which gained more than 2% [3] Economic Indicators - U.S. ADP employment data for August showed an increase of 54,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 65,000, while initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is currently at 99.4% according to CME FedWatch Tool [4] Hong Kong Stock Exchange Data - As of the end of August, the total market capitalization of the Hong Kong stock market was 46.6 trillion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 47% [4] - The average daily trading volume in August was 279.1 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 192% [4] Short Selling Data - On September 4, a total of 641 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with total short selling amounting to 31.093 billion HKD [5] - The top three stocks by short selling amount were Alibaba (32.9 billion HKD), Tencent Holdings (10.12 billion HKD), and Xiaomi Group (9.78 billion HKD) [5] Institutional Insights - UBS highlighted two key trends in China's AI development: significant progress in AI monetization and accelerated localization of chip production [6] - The firm believes that the valuation of stocks related to AI investment opportunities in the Chinese market remains attractive, with the Hang Seng Tech Index currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 17 times, while expected earnings growth for the next three years could reach 20% to 25% [6] Hong Kong ETFs - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) focuses on e-commerce and new consumption sectors, which are relatively scarce compared to A-shares [7] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) encompasses core AI assets in China, including leading technology firms that are also relatively scarce in A-shares [8]