华创证券：消费市场供需两端酝酿新变 关注线下重塑、AI应用、体验消费三条主线

Core Viewpoint - The domestic consumption market is entering a new phase characterized by slowing product growth and ongoing prosperity in services, with trends such as value-for-money, emotional value, and overseas expansion emerging as key themes [1] Demand Side - Service consumption is overall prosperous, with value-for-money, emotional value, and overseas expansion becoming new trends. The domestic consumption market is experiencing a slowdown in product growth, while service consumption is being emphasized as a crucial driver for overall market growth [1] - Changes in income expectations and generational shifts among consumers are leading to a heightened focus on cost-effectiveness, while also driving demand towards more segmented offerings [1] - The "Guochao" (national trend) brands, which leverage local creativity, are gaining favor among domestic consumers and are expected to lead in establishing brand recognition in overseas markets [1] Supply Side - Offline consumption is accelerating towards chain operations, with local life and comprehensive e-commerce platforms enhancing fulfillment capabilities and deepening integration with offline consumption scenarios [2] - Leading chain dining enterprises are increasingly focusing on vertical integration within their supply chains, while competition is also driven by product-oriented strategies that emphasize differentiated scenarios, services, and content IP [2] - The application of AI is providing new momentum for product transformation and efficiency improvements in sectors such as enterprise services and education [2] Business Models - Service consumption reflects a deep integration of scenarios and services, leading to the emergence of different business models based on the complexity of service content and scenarios [3] - Three main business models are identified: 1. Chain operations focused on organizational efficiency and overall supply chain efficiency 2. Complex standalone operations centered around scarce scenarios and intricate service content 3. Service distribution and empowerment platforms leveraging traffic, scale, and technological advantages [3] - The industry is expected to undergo a reshuffling, with leading companies emerging that can solidify their barriers and potentially navigate through economic cycles [3]