Group 1 - The US dollar index is experiencing narrow fluctuations, currently at 98.14, with a slight decline of 0.14%, but has seen a cumulative increase of 0.4% this week, indicating potential for a second consecutive week of gains [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly rose by 8,000 to 237,000, exceeding market expectations of 230,000, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [1] - The yields on US Treasury bonds have declined across all maturities, with the 10-year yield dropping by 2.1 basis points to 4.19% and the 2-year yield falling to 3.60%, reflecting ongoing fiscal concerns globally [1] Group 2 - The market is now pricing in nearly a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the upcoming meeting on September 17, a significant increase from 89% a week prior [1] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have indicated that pressures in the labor market remain a key reason supporting the case for a rate cut [1] - The US, European, and Japanese bond markets have stabilized following a reduction in fiscal concerns, with the US 2-year Treasury yield dropping to 3.583%, the lowest since May [2]
美联储降息押注升温 非农将成关键触发点
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-05 03:26