Group 1 - The US dollar index is currently at 98.13, showing a slight decline of 0.15%, indicating a long-term downtrend unless the non-farm payroll data exceeds an increase of 100,000 jobs this month [1] - The market has nearly fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the August non-farm report expected to adjust expectations for subsequent rate cuts in October (currently at about 50% probability) and December (currently at about 40% probability) [1][2] - The August non-farm employment report is anticipated to show a net job addition of 75,000, with average hourly earnings expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month (3.7% year-on-year), and the U3 unemployment rate expected to slightly increase to 4.3% [2] Group 2 - The market is likely to adjust its expectations for future rate cuts based on the August employment data, unless there is a significant surprise in the report [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the dollar index faced resistance below 98.45 and support above 98.05, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend [2] - Short-term resistance levels for the dollar index are identified at 98.45-98.50, with important support levels at 98.10-98.15 and 97.90-97.95 [2]
美联储降息节奏将定调 美元走势面临抉择
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-05 03:30