贺利氏预测：国际金价再创新高 短期高位波动

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to fluctuate between $3,400 and $3,800 per ounce in the short term, with recent trends indicating a rise to a historical high of $3,578 per ounce due to various economic factors [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut in September, supported by recent economic data, has contributed to the upward trend in gold prices [1]. - The July JOLTS job openings reached a new low since September 2024, raising concerns about a weakening labor market, which further supports the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed [1]. - The market is awaiting the August non-farm payroll data for clearer guidance on economic conditions [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Concerns over fiscal issues in Western countries have intensified, leading to rising government bond yields and a sell-off in stocks, bonds, and currencies, which has increased interest in safe-haven assets like gold [1]. - High gold prices are suppressing physical consumption, but global gold ETFs have seen continued inflows driven by Europe and North America, indicating sustained investment demand [2]. - The potential for increased investment in gold ETFs is expected if central banks continue to purchase gold, providing further support for gold prices [2].