日本央行前首席经济学家称10月利率决策难以预测-美股-金融界

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October may underestimate the uncertainties brought about by Trump's tariff measures [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Former chief economist of the Bank of Japan, Takahiro Sakane, emphasizes that the uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs is greater than what market participants might believe [1] - Some economists have identified October as the most likely time for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, given the resilience of the Japanese economy [1] - Sakane does not completely rule out the possibility of a rate hike, as various factors, including exchange rates, will influence the decision [1] Group 2: Policy Considerations - Sakane warns that declaring economic risks fully resolved by October would be challenging [1] - He reflects on the early rate hikes and exit from quantitative easing in the first decade of this century, which were criticized at the time but later revealed that the economy remained in deflation [1] - Current Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has committed to closely monitoring the impact of U.S. tariffs [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market generally anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain the interest rate at 0.5% during the policy meeting that concluded on September 19 [1]