“反内卷”带动光伏产业链价格修复，光伏50ETF（159864）大涨超4.5%，冲击三连阳

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a significant market surge driven by the "anti-involution" theme, with the photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) rising over 4.5% and several constituent stocks increasing by more than 10% [1] Industry Summary - The photovoltaic industry is gradually bottoming out, with a projected year-on-year revenue decline of 9.7% for core companies in the first half of 2025. However, domestic demand is expected to improve operational rates and revenue in the second quarter [1] - The industry faced losses in the first half of the year, but the loss margin decreased in the second quarter, and after adjusting for impairment losses, companies turned profitable on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1] - The main pressure on the sector comes from the pricing within the supply chain, with negative gross margins reported for silicon wafers in the second quarter. The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to stabilize and recover prices, alleviating cash flow pressures for companies [1] - Continuous supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic industry are being emphasized by regulatory bodies, aiming to curb low-price competition and improve the overall market environment [1] - Recent discussions among six government departments highlighted the need for coordinated supply-side reforms, which could lead to improved industry conditions [1] Price and Capacity Developments - The photovoltaic sector is one of the most affected by supply-demand imbalances and profitability pressures, but recent political support may benefit the industry first under the "anti-involution" theme [2] - Significant price increases in silicon materials are expected to lead to a recovery in downstream prices, with further price adjustments anticipated to reach reasonable levels [2] - Ongoing mergers and acquisitions in silicon material capacity are being closely monitored, with expectations for sustained momentum in the "anti-involution" market [2] - Policy measures under the "anti-involution" initiative are likely to focus on controlling upstream silicon material capacity and establishing minimum procurement prices for downstream projects to protect profit margins [2]