光伏行业反内卷的影响下 工业硅期货盘面表现偏强

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market shows a strong performance with a significant price increase, indicating potential shifts in supply and demand dynamics within the industry [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 5, the main contract for industrial silicon futures reached 8795.0 yuan/ton, marking a substantial increase of 3.41% [1]. - The trading volume of industrial silicon futures on September 4 was 50,072 contracts, which represents a decrease of 276 contracts compared to the previous trading day [2]. Group 2: Production and Capacity - The estimated national industrial silicon production for the week is approximately 81,100 tons, with a national capacity utilization rate of 55.85% [2]. - Weekly production has increased to 90,000 tons, suggesting a monthly production estimate of around 390,000 tons [3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The organic silicon market is experiencing upward trends in prices and profits, leading to expectations of increased production, which may negatively impact the demand for industrial silicon [2]. - The demand side for polysilicon is expected to decrease, with monthly production revised down from 145,000 tons to a range of 120,000 to 130,000 tons due to production cuts [3]. - The industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with no significant inventory reduction drivers present [3]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - According to Jianxin Futures, the current market conditions show no significant improvement in the fundamentals, with increased supply pressure and a lack of policy focus on the industrial silicon sector [3]. - Zhonghui Futures notes that supply pressures are rising, particularly in the northwest region, while downstream polysilicon operations are expected to decrease, influenced by strong price increases in polysilicon and the photovoltaic industry [3].