Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams stated that there has not been a significant amplification effect on overall inflation trends from the White House's tariff policies, reinforcing market expectations for an upcoming interest rate cut by the Fed [1][2] - Williams emphasized that existing data shows tariffs have not triggered a widespread price spiral, and he continues to monitor the potential impacts of tariffs on core inflation [1][2] - The labor market's marginal changes are a key focus for Williams, who noted that the high interest rate environment has led to a significant slowdown in job growth, indicating the necessity for policy adjustments [1][2] Group 2 - Market participants are focused on two key arguments: easing inflationary pressures and a cooling job market, with Williams projecting continued economic slowdown and raising the unemployment rate peak to approximately 4.5% due to negative impacts from trade and immigration policies [2] - There are internal divisions within the Fed regarding the pace of rate cuts, with some members advocating for immediate cuts while others suggest a more data-dependent approach [2] - Market pricing indicates a high probability (89.7%) that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming September meeting, with the current federal funds rate at a 20-year high of 4.25%-4.5% [2] Group 3 - There are still uncertainties regarding the inflation path, with some indicators of full employment deteriorating and the actual transmission of tariffs on prices needing further observation [3] - The use of overnight reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) has decreased to $21.07 billion, the lowest since April 2021, indicating potential liquidity pressures in the banking system [3] - The market is awaiting the August non-farm payroll report, which could further strengthen expectations for a rate cut if it confirms a weakening job market [3]
美联储降息窗口渐启!美联储内部共识强化 决策层核心成员言论夯实宽松预期
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-05 06:37