丁二烯工艺暴增 市场或走弱？

Group 1 - The global butadiene market outlook for the four months after 2025 is pessimistic due to increased supply from refinery maintenance season ending and new facilities coming online, leading traders to seek to shift goods from Europe and the US to higher-priced Asia [1] - Despite a decline in global butadiene prices this year, an arbitrage window has opened, prompting European goods to shift towards Asia, exacerbated by the restart of TotalEnergies' butadiene facility in France and the resumption of Dow's plant in Germany [1] - The price difference between Rotterdam and the Chinese market for butadiene in the first half of 2025 is projected to be $270.50 per ton, although Asian butadiene prices will remain the highest globally [1] Group 2 - The price spread between butadiene and naphtha may narrow as the Asian market weakens, with the spread expected to decrease from $641.17 per ton in the first half of 2025 to $400 per ton in the second half [2] - With the end of refinery maintenance season, US butadiene supply is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, although limited export opportunities due to low overseas prices will keep most of the supply in the domestic market [2] - The European butadiene market is expected to remain sluggish until the fourth quarter, with traders closely monitoring shipments to Asia, and a slow recovery in demand anticipated after buyers return from holidays in early September [2]