英国7月零售销售超预期仍难掩疲态 经济前景蒙上阴影

Core Viewpoint - The UK retail sales in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.2%, although the three-month trend indicates a decline, reflecting consumer caution that hampers economic growth plans of the Labour government [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Data - The July retail sales data was delayed by two weeks due to the need for "further quality assurance" by the Office for National Statistics [1] - The June retail sales growth was revised down from 0.9% to 0.3% [1] - Despite the positive July figure, retail sales have declined over the past three months, indicating ongoing consumer caution [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the economy, and the Labour government cannot afford the consequences of continued consumer caution [1] - The UK government is striving to revive economic growth amidst rising borrowing costs and potential downward revisions of productivity forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility [1] - Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the annual budget will be revealed on November 26, with economists estimating a need for tax increases or spending cuts of up to £51 billion (approximately $68 billion) to address the public finance shortfall [1] Group 3: Data Accuracy Concerns - Retail analysts and economists have raised concerns about the accuracy of official spending data, noting that it fails to account for seasonal variations and does not keep pace with shopping trends on social media platforms like TikTok [1]