今夜非农：数据要多“难看”，才能换来50个基点降息？-美股-金融界

Group 1 - The market widely expects a slight increase in non-farm payrolls to 75,000 in August, with the unemployment rate anticipated to rise to 4.3%, reinforcing expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September [1][3] - Standard Chartered Bank indicates that for a 50 basis point rate cut to be considered, the data must be "bad enough," specifically non-farm payrolls below 40,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.4% or higher [1][9] - A weak report is seen as most beneficial for the market, as it would likely support the case for a rate cut [1][10] Group 2 - Investors will closely monitor revisions to previous months' data, as July's report saw significant downward adjustments to May and June's employment figures, which shocked the market [2][3] - The upcoming annual benchmark revision from the Bureau of Labor Statistics could also trigger market volatility, with expectations of a downward adjustment of 500,000 to 1 million jobs [8][9] - The options market reflects an unusually calm expectation, with traders anticipating only a 0.70% volatility in the S&P 500 on the report release day, marking one of the lowest levels historically [2][11] Group 3 - Economic forecasts suggest a slowdown, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.2% in July to 4.3% in August, still below the Federal Reserve's year-end median forecast of 4.5% [3][4] - Average hourly earnings are projected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate slowing from 3.9% to 3.8% [3][4] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims and ADP private sector employment figures indicating a decline in hiring [6][7] Group 4 - The Challenger report indicates a drop in corporate hiring intentions to the lowest level since 2009, alongside a surge in layoffs [7] - The JOLTS report shows that for the first time since April 2021, the number of unemployed exceeded job vacancies, signaling a demand-constrained labor market [7] - Consumer confidence reports reveal a decrease in the proportion of consumers believing job availability is sufficient, while those finding it hard to secure work has increased [7] Group 5 - The market's baseline expectations for the report are notably pessimistic, following July's weak non-farm payrolls and significant downward revisions to prior months [4][6] - Analysts suggest that a "just right" report, slightly below expectations, would be the most favorable outcome for risk assets, maintaining the current growth pricing while solidifying rate cut expectations [12][13] - The upcoming CPI data is considered more critical than the non-farm report, as a strong inflation reading combined with robust employment figures could lead the Fed to pause rate cuts [9][10]