民生证券：当前煤价处于淡旺季交界 下半年有望延续淡季涨势

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities indicates that coal prices are expected to rebound due to seasonal demand and supply constraints, with a forecast to return to the levels seen in Q3 2024 [1][2]. Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the average price of thermal coal was 675.7 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8%. The lowest price in Q2 2025 was 631.6 yuan/ton, down 25.6% year-on-year and 12.43% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - From late June to late August 2025, prices rebounded from 609 yuan/ton to 704 yuan/ton due to increased summer demand and reduced supply [1]. Industry Outlook - Since mid-April 2025, production cuts have been observed in domestic regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, as well as in Indonesia, with monthly imports decreasing by approximately 10 million tons [2]. - The ongoing supply-side policies are expected to further tighten production, with a theoretical impact on supply estimated at around 400 million tons [2]. - The upcoming "golden September and silver October" period is anticipated to see a gradual release of non-electric demand, particularly in the coal chemical sector, which has maintained over 10% year-on-year growth in coal consumption [2]. Fund Holdings Situation - In Q2 2025, most coal sector listed companies saw a year-on-year decline in fund holdings, with the largest drop recorded by Gansu Energy and New Energy [3]. - However, compared to Q1 2025, most companies in the coal sector experienced an increase in fund holdings, with the largest increases seen in Huabei Mining, New Energy, and Haohua Energy [3]. Mid-Year Report Summary - In Q2 2025, the coal sector's operating revenue decreased by 20.1% year-on-year and 4.06% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 36.7% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - Operating cash flow decreased year-on-year, and financing cash outflows increased, with a slight rise in the asset-liability ratio [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high spot price elasticity stocks, stable growth companies, and those benefiting from production recovery, including specific companies like Lu'an Huanneng, Jinko Coal Industry, and China Shenhua [5].