Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing a shift from a tight balance to a more relaxed supply situation, with prices expected to continue a weak trend in September due to increased supply and stable demand from downstream aluminum producers [1][2][4]. Supply Analysis - As of September 5, the main aluminum oxide futures contract rebounded to 3006 yuan/ton, down nearly 14% from the recent high of 3482 yuan/ton in late July [1]. - The average price of metallurgical-grade aluminum oxide in the spot market was 3189.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.98 yuan/ton or 1.15% from the previous week [1]. - The supply of aluminum oxide remains ample, with a forecasted production of 7.7823 million tons by August 2025, an increase of 3.55% from July [1][2]. - Total aluminum oxide inventory in China reached 4.316 million tons by August 28, 2025, up 23.4 million tons from the previous month [2]. Demand Analysis - In August, the estimated consumption of aluminum oxide was 7.6428 million tons, an increase of 5.34 million tons or 0.7% from the previous month [2]. - The demand from downstream aluminum producers remains stable, with high operating rates in the electrolytic aluminum sector, although some regions are experiencing slight adjustments in production capacity [2][3]. Market Outlook - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with expectations of continued weak pricing in September, projected to range between 3000 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton [4]. - The supply pressure is expected to increase as production stabilizes and some companies resume operations after maintenance [4]. - The overall market is anticipated to be influenced more by fundamental factors, with a strong supply and weak demand scenario likely to exert downward pressure on prices in the coming months [4].
氧化铝价格跌至3000元关口 市场短期或继续承压
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-09-05 08:20