智通财经网·2025-09-05 08:46Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that the number of breeding sows in China is expected to continue increasing until at least September 2025, despite a projected decline in overall pig prices and profitability in the industry [1] Group 1: Breeding Sow Inventory - According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of breeding sows in July decreased slightly to 40.42 million, a decline of 10,000 heads month-on-month [1] - Data from Yongyi Consulting shows that the breeding sow inventory in sample 1 increased by 0.14% month-on-month, while sample 2 saw a growth of 0.52% [2] - Mysteel's data indicates that the breeding sow inventory remained stable month-on-month, with a slight increase in large-scale farms and a minor decrease in smallholder farms [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average profit per pig sold in 2023 has been 108 yuan, with the industry maintaining profitability for 15 consecutive months [1] - In July, pig feed sales increased by 4.9%, indicating a rise in demand for feed despite fluctuating pig prices [2] - The overall pig market has seen a high-level retreat, but profits for large-scale farms remain, leading to limited willingness to reduce production capacity [3] Group 3: Industry Recommendations - Guolian Minsheng Securities recommends investing in leading breeding companies with significant cost advantages and high output realization rates, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [1] - The report also suggests focusing on the post-cycle animal health and feed sectors, highlighting companies like Haida Group [1]