这“锂”再现“风光”？——新能源板块大涨点评

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.89%, the ChiNext Index by 6.55%, and the North Star 50 Index by 5.15%. The total market turnover reached 2.35 trillion yuan [1]. New Energy Sector Performance - The new energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with notable increases in various ETFs: the ChiNext New Energy ETF (159387) rose by 10.98%, the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) by 8.64%, the Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) by 7.86%, and the Carbon Neutrality 50 ETF (159861) by 7.54% [1][2]. Driving Factors for Growth - Capital Shift: The new energy sector had previously limited gains, with the current position still about 15% below the 2015 peak and approximately 40% below the 2021 peak. This has led to a significant capital shift from artificial intelligence to the new energy sector [3]. - Lithium Battery Demand: The lithium battery sector is entering a peak season, with strong production in September. The demand for energy storage remains robust, and the upcoming reduction in domestic purchase tax is expected to further stimulate demand [4]. - Energy Storage Market: In the domestic market, energy storage tenders are increasing, with supportive policies emerging. Internationally, the U.S. market is seeing a favorable environment due to delayed tariffs and subsidies, while Europe and emerging markets are also experiencing growth in energy storage demand [5]. - Photovoltaic Sector: Policies are being implemented to eliminate "involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with expectations for a clearer capacity reduction plan. Prices for key materials in the photovoltaic supply chain are rising, although transaction volumes remain low [6]. - Wind Power Performance: The wind power sector has seen a significant increase in installed capacity, with a 99% year-on-year growth in new grid-connected capacity in the first half of 2025. The sector is benefiting from improved pricing and robust demand [7]. Future Outlook - In the short term, lithium batteries and energy storage are expected to be the preferred sectors due to the upcoming peak season and favorable demand dynamics. Wind power is also worth monitoring for continued performance, while the photovoltaic sector's price stabilization and policy developments should be tracked [9].