Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for August is expected to reveal further signs of a cooling labor market, with a median forecast of 75,000 new jobs added, compared to 73,000 in July, amidst various economic indicators showing weakness [1][2]. Labor Market Trends - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with July's non-farm payroll growth at 73,000, below the expected 110,000, and significant downward revisions of 258,000 for May and June combined [2][3]. - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported a decrease of 176,000 job openings to 7.181 million, the lowest since September of the previous year [2]. - The ADP employment report indicated an increase of only 54,000 jobs in the private sector, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000 [2][3]. Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that if the August non-farm payroll data falls short of expectations, it could heighten concerns about "stagflation" risks in the U.S. economy, leading to increased market speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 99.4%, with expectations for a 50 basis point cut if the non-farm payroll number is below 40,000 and the unemployment rate reaches or exceeds 4.4% [5][6]. Market Reactions - Market reactions to the non-farm payroll data are anticipated to be significant, with potential impacts on the U.S. dollar and gold prices depending on whether the data meets or falls short of expectations [8]. - Historical data shows that gold and crude oil prices have a 42% probability of rising following the release of non-farm payroll data, while the Nasdaq 100 index has a 58% probability of increasing [9].
【环球财经】美国就业市场频传走弱信号 美联储利率路径或更为曲折
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-05 09:54