美国非农就业数据远低于预期 国际金价再创历史新高

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, raising concerns about a deteriorating labor market [1] - Following the employment data release, market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased, as the actual job growth was far below expectations [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance is reinforced by weaker-than-expected economic data, with a consensus forming around a 25 basis point cut in September [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September is at 88.3%, while the chance of a 50 basis point cut is at 11.7% [2] - Despite the likelihood of rate cuts, the path to easing may not be straightforward due to inflation control targets, which could shift the Fed's focus back to inflation management [2] - The structural factors supporting the dollar's valuation are weakening, with expectations of a 5-10% decline in the dollar index over the next 12 months [3] Group 3 - Gold prices are expected to remain strong and may reach new highs, although a period of consolidation is anticipated after hitting these levels due to profit-taking [3]