【环球财经】美国今夏就业增长急剧放缓 市场开始定价9月降息50个基点可能性

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. employment growth during the summer, with August non-farm payroll data showing a notable decline, raising concerns among investors about the labor market and prompting expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][4] Group 2 - The August non-farm payroll report revealed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with revisions showing a total decrease of 21,000 jobs for June and July combined [2] - The healthcare and social assistance sector saw an increase of approximately 47,000 jobs in August, marking the smallest monthly gain since January 2022, which raises alarms about the overall labor market vitality [2][3] - Average weekly hours worked unexpectedly dropped to 34.2 hours, indicating a potential weakening in labor demand from employers [2] Group 3 - Recent data suggests a broader trend of declining job vacancies and wage growth, contributing to economic pressures and indicating a softening labor market [3] - The Federal Reserve may prioritize full employment over price stability in light of the significant drop in labor demand, with expectations for interest rate cuts to support the transition from public to private sector job growth [4] Group 4 - Following the non-farm data release, traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve initiating rapid consecutive rate cuts, with an 88.3% probability for a 25 basis point cut and an 11.7% probability for a 50 basis point cut [4] - Analysts express skepticism about the necessity of a 50 basis point cut, suggesting that previous measures may have been excessive and that inflation remains above the Fed's target, potentially limiting support for aggressive rate cuts [5]