QUBT Stock Lags YTD but Photonic Foundry May Be a Long-Term Catalyst

Core Insights - Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) has made significant strides in the commercialization of its thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN) photonic chip foundry, which is now its primary growth driver [1] Group 1: Commercialization and Growth Strategy - In 2024, QUBT completed its facility in Tempe, AZ, and secured multiple preorders, including five purchase orders for its chips, indicating strong market validation prior to production [2] - By early 2025, management emphasized the foundry's central role in its commercialization strategy, positioning QUBT as one of the few U.S. providers of TFLN photonic chips, transitioning from facility construction to revenue generation from preorders [3] - In Q2 2025, QUBT initiated its first customer shipments, marking a shift from government research contracts to scalable product revenues, with the foundry enabling diversification into larger adjacent markets [4][10] Group 2: Business Performance and Market Position - The last three sequential quarters demonstrate a clear ramp in the foundry business, moving from preorder capture to production readiness and actual deliveries, establishing a foundation for sustainable commercialization and long-term expansion [5] - Year to date, QUBT has experienced a 10.8% decline in share price, contrasting with the industry's 18.5% growth and the sector's 14.6% rise, while the S&P 500 index has improved by 11% during the same period [8] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - QUBT's peers include Lumentum Holdings (LITE), which develops photonic products for telecom and datacom applications, and Coherent Corp. (COHR), which targets AI data centers and industrial lasers, with COHR aiming for 22% revenue growth and nearly tripling EPS by 2025 [6][7] Group 4: Price Performance and Market Outlook - QUBT is currently trading 22.9% below its average Zacks price target, indicating potential near-term upside [11]