Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a phase of recovery driven by global energy transition and electrification trends, with expectations for a cyclical rebound in the industry by the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Industry Recovery - Recent strength in lithium battery stocks indicates a stage of recovery in the industry, with inventory levels decreasing and downstream demand improving, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage markets [2]. - In the first half of the year, China's EV sales reached 6.937 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%, which has positively impacted the power battery market [2]. - The power battery shipment volume in China for the first half of the year was 477 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49% [2]. - The energy storage market saw a "rush to install" trend, with energy storage battery shipments reaching 265 GWh, a significant year-on-year increase of 128% [2]. Policy Support - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a growth action plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry for 2025-2026, projecting an average growth rate of over 5% for the lithium battery sector [3]. - The plan aims to promote high-quality development in the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries while managing competition effectively [3]. Positive Performance Indicators - Some listed companies in the lithium battery supply chain have shown improved profitability, particularly in the anode materials segment, which has emerged from its adjustment phase [4]. - In the first half of the year, China's anode material shipments reached 1.29 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 37% [4]. - Notable performance includes Ningbo Shanshan Co., Ltd., which reported revenue of 9.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.78%, and a net profit of 207 million yuan, reflecting a dramatic year-on-year increase of 1079.59% [4]. Short-term Demand Outlook - September and October are traditionally peak demand months for lithium batteries, with projected battery production in China reaching 152 GWh in September, a month-on-month increase of 13.4% and a year-on-year increase of 38.2% [5]. - The industry is expected to maintain a positive trend, driven by continuous demand growth and technological innovations such as solid-state batteries [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current supply levels of battery-grade lithium carbonate are balanced with growing downstream demand, although there may be potential for price declines in the medium to long term [6]. - The key to future development for lithium battery companies lies in maintaining supply chain efficiency while advancing technological innovations and exploring new market opportunities [6].
多因素支撑 锂电产业有望逐步复苏
Zheng Quan Ri Bao·2025-09-05 16:06