供应压力仍存蛋价短期反弹空间或有限

Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery in the egg futures and spot market is driven by factors such as oversold conditions, seasonal stocking demand, and the exit of short-sellers, although supply pressure remains significant due to ongoing losses in egg production [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 5, the main egg futures contract closed at 2964 yuan per 500 kg, reflecting a nearly 2% increase from the low point on September 2 [1]. - The average price of eggs in China's agricultural wholesale market was 7.73 yuan per kg on September 5, up 1.84% from 7.59 yuan per kg on September 2 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The egg market is experiencing a complex supply-demand dynamic, with producers reluctant to cull older hens due to ongoing losses, which keeps supply pressure high [1][3]. - Seasonal demand typically peaks in the third quarter, but this year, the market has not seen the expected price increases during this period due to various factors, including high temperatures affecting egg quality [4]. Group 3: Production Insights - The number of hens being culled has been limited, with producers maintaining a cautious approach, although there is an expectation that culling will increase as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches [3][6]. - The egg production cycle indicates that the number of hens entering the culling phase in September will increase, potentially leading to a gradual reduction in production capacity [3][6]. Group 4: Profitability and Market Sentiment - The prolonged low prices have resulted in significant losses for egg producers, with losses nearing 0.30 yuan per kg during July and August [4][5]. - The market sentiment is shifting from a focus on maintaining production to selective capacity reduction, as producers face ongoing financial pressures [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - There is a potential for slight price increases in September due to pre-festival stocking and increased demand from schools, although overall price recovery may be limited by high production capacity [6]. - The egg market is expected to see a gradual decline in inventory levels post-third quarter, but the pace of this decline may be slow [6].