Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the alumina market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to a continuous oversupply and high operational rates among enterprises, leading to bearish market sentiment [1][2][3] - As of September 5, the main alumina futures contract rebounded to 3006 yuan/ton, but this represents a nearly 14% decline from the recent high of 3482 yuan/ton in late July [1] - The average spot price of alumina this week was 3189.08 yuan/ton, down 36.98 yuan/ton from the previous week, reflecting a decline of 1.15% [1] Group 2 - In terms of demand, the estimated alumina consumption in August was 764.28 million tons, an increase of 5.34 million tons or 0.7% from the previous month [2] - The total alumina inventory in China as of August 28 was 431.6 million tons, up 23.4 million tons from the end of July, driven by high production rates and increased imports [2] - The alumina market is shifting from a tight balance to a more relaxed supply situation, particularly in northern regions, while southern regions remain slightly tight [2][3] Group 3 - The outlook for September suggests that alumina prices may continue to weaken, with expected price ranges between 3000 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton due to increased market supply and pressure from downstream aluminum plants [3][4] - Analysts predict that the spot prices for metallurgical-grade alumina may experience slight declines over the next three months, influenced by stable output from newly added capacities and ongoing repairs in production lines [4] - The cost side remains uncertain due to seasonal disruptions in Guinea and fluctuations in raw material prices, although it is expected that the cost will provide some support [4]
氧化铝价格跌至3000元关口 市场短期承压
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-09-05 18:42