联合国贸发会议报告指出—— 贸易政策不确定性扰乱全球价值链

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report highlights that global trade policy uncertainty, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and economic challenges, poses significant risks to trade-dependent economies and hampers global economic growth [1][4] - Trade policy uncertainty is deemed more damaging than tariffs, as businesses can adapt to rising costs but struggle with unpredictable policy changes [1][4] Group 1: Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty - The report identifies the United States as a key example, noting that frequent adjustments to U.S. trade policies create significant unpredictability for global trade [2] - U.S. unilateral actions, such as tariffs and sanctions, have intensified global trade policy uncertainty and provoked retaliatory measures from other countries [2] - Developing and least developed countries are particularly vulnerable to U.S. trade policy uncertainty, lacking the capacity to respond effectively, which hinders their economic and social development [2] Group 2: Recommendations for Mitigating Uncertainty - The report calls for governments, businesses, and international organizations to collaborate in enhancing global trade resilience and stability [3][4] - Governments should base policy decisions on clear economic analysis and data, providing rationale and expected impacts to improve predictability for businesses and investors [3] - International organizations like UNCTAD and WTO should promote policy coordination among countries to avoid retaliatory measures and establish frameworks to address uncertainty [3] - Countries are encouraged to adhere to regional and multilateral trade agreements to minimize policy volatility and foster a stable trading environment [3] - Businesses should enhance supply chain flexibility by diversifying suppliers, increasing inventory, and adopting various transportation methods to mitigate operational disruptions during periods of uncertainty [3]