现货黄金首破3600美元再创纪录！美国就业数据疲软强化降息预期

Group 1 - Spot gold has surpassed $3600 per ounce for the first time, setting a historical high and recording the largest weekly gain since mid-June [1] - The significant drop in U.S. non-farm payroll data has led the market to almost confirm that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September [1] - Analysts suggest that the combination of lower interest rates and safe-haven demand is driving gold prices upward, with expectations of multiple rate cuts due to weak labor market data [1] Group 2 - The probability of maintaining interest rates in September has dropped to 0%, with an 88.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut and an 11.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut [2] - Market forecasts indicate that the federal funds rate could drop to a target range of 3.25%-3.50% by January 2025, a full percentage point lower than current levels [2] - Gold has outperformed most commodities this year, with prices soaring over 37% year-to-date, driven by monetary policy easing and macroeconomic uncertainties [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs predicts that if private investors diversify into gold like central banks, prices could rise significantly, potentially exceeding the previously set tail risk scenario of $4500 per ounce [3] - In an extreme scenario, if just 1% of funds from the U.S. Treasury market flow into gold, prices could approach $5000 per ounce [3]