疲软非农点燃50基点降息预期 与2024年如出一辙的美联储降息剧本即将上演?

Core Viewpoint - The unexpectedly weak U.S. non-farm payroll report suggests a significant economic slowdown, prompting Wall Street institutions to advocate for accelerated monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, including a potential 50 basis point rate cut this month [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The August non-farm payroll report showed an increase of only approximately 22,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 75,000, and the June employment data was revised down to negative growth, marking the first monthly decline since 2020 [3][4]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, reinforcing market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the non-farm payroll data, U.S. stock indices fell, the dollar weakened, and U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board, indicating market pricing for a more aggressive rate cut [3][4][6]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with a notable increase in the probability of a 50 basis point cut from 0% to 10% after the non-farm report [2][6]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Market participants are betting on consecutive 25 basis point cuts in the upcoming FOMC meetings on October 29 and December 10, anticipating a total of 100 basis points in cuts by the end of 2025 [2][6]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed may replicate the 2024 rate cut path, starting with a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, which could support stock market performance and increase risk appetite among investors [7][8]. Group 4: Inflation Concerns - Despite the push for rate cuts, inflation remains a significant concern, with current rates still above the Fed's 2% target, and potential tariff impacts on consumer prices being closely monitored [7][8]. - Some analysts caution against assuming a large rate cut will occur, noting that August is often a "noisy" month and subsequent data, including the upcoming CPI report, will provide further insights into inflation trends [8].