29年来首次！全球央行黄金储备反超美债，“去美元化”加速？

Core Viewpoint - Gold is challenging the foundation of the modern financial system, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds, as its share in central bank reserves has surpassed that of U.S. debt for the first time since 1996, indicating a significant shift in global reserve management strategies [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Behavior - Central banks are strategically increasing their gold reserves to reduce reliance on U.S. dollar assets, thereby diversifying potential risks associated with a single reserve currency [3][4]. - The World Gold Council (WGC) reported that global central banks have net purchased gold for 14 consecutive quarters, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons since 2020, nearly double the average of the previous decade [4][7]. - A recent survey indicated that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [7]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged, with a 36% increase in futures prices this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and Bitcoin [10]. - August alone saw gold prices rise over 3.5%, marking a historical trend of consecutive monthly gains not seen since 1968 [10]. - Analysts suggest that the current gold market is in its third major bull cycle, potentially lasting for several years or even over a decade [10][11]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bonds - The bond market is experiencing a downturn, with long-term U.S. Treasury yields reaching levels not seen in decades, leading to significant declines in bond prices [13][15]. - The 2020s are projected to be the worst decade for U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly long-term bonds, as rising yields have resulted in a cumulative decline of over 40% for certain bond ETFs [13][15]. - Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt and fiscal discipline are growing, with warnings that the current trajectory could force the Federal Reserve into difficult decisions regarding inflation and interest rates [17][18]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Major financial institutions are bullish on gold prices, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2025 year-end target to $3,700 per ounce and suggesting potential peaks of $4,500 to $5,000 if political pressures undermine the Federal Reserve's independence [19]. - Bank of America and JPMorgan also predict significant increases in gold prices, with estimates reaching $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [19].