消费基金首尾业绩差超80%！传统消费股“春天”何时来？

Core Viewpoint - The traditional consumer sector, particularly food and beverage stocks, has underperformed in 2023 compared to other sectors, with the food and beverage index showing a year-to-date decline of -1.92%, significantly lagging behind the top-performing communication index by over 60 percentage points [1]. Group 1: Performance of Consumer Funds - There is a significant performance divergence among consumer funds, with a difference of over 80 percentage points between the best and worst performing funds. The top-performing fund has achieved over 70% returns, while the lowest has seen losses exceeding 8% [3]. - As of early September, 71 consumer funds have reported net value increases of over 20%, while 90 funds have seen increases of less than 10% [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Trends - To generate excess returns, funds heavily invested in consumer stocks need to align with new trends. For instance, the Hai Fu Tong Consumer Select Fund has increased its allocation to new consumption sub-sectors while enhancing research on both traditional and tech-driven consumer sectors [4]. - Some funds are capitalizing on overseas consumption growth opportunities, such as the Yongying Emerging Consumer Fund, which has invested in Hong Kong-listed companies in trendy toys and innovative pharmaceuticals, benefiting from "going abroad" dividends [4]. Group 3: Challenges for Traditional Consumer Stocks - Funds that have maintained a focus on traditional consumer stocks have struggled, with some experiencing significant losses. For example, the Guorong Rongxin Consumer Fund has heavily invested in liquor, beverages, and other traditional sectors but has reported a loss of over 8% [5]. - The Pu Yin An Sheng Consumer Upgrade Fund, which also focuses on traditional consumer stocks, has seen a decline of over 5% in net value, reflecting the challenges faced by traditional sectors [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The consumer sector is experiencing extreme differentiation, with traditional consumer stocks, particularly those linked to economic cycles like liquor, facing downward pressure, while new consumption companies are thriving [6]. - Fund managers believe that traditional consumption is nearing a bottom, while new consumption continues to present significant growth opportunities. For instance, the Yin Hua Consumer Theme Fund manager noted that traditional industries are giving rise to new development opportunities, such as supply chain integration and the rise of domestic brands [7]. - The manager of the Yongying Emerging Consumer Fund highlighted that leading companies in the trendy toy sector are in the early stages of explosive growth in the European and American markets, indicating high growth potential and certainty [7].