长久物流(603569)：公路治超持续验证 上调公司盈利预测

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is an upgrade of the profit forecast for Changjiu Logistics, raising its rating to "Buy" due to the steady advancement of highway overload control and an expected improvement in domestic business [1][3] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025E-2027E are adjusted to 0.88 billion, 4.42 billion, and 5.34 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.9%, 400.5%, and 20.8% [1][3] - The implementation of highway overload control policies is expected to significantly enhance profit elasticity, particularly in 2026, as the company’s profitability will better reflect the price increases in transportation [1][3] Group 2 - There is a supply gap of approximately 10,000 compliant transport vehicles, indicating significant potential for price increases in the transportation market [2] - In 2024, China's automobile sales are projected to be 31.436 million units, with road transport accounting for 61.5% of this figure [2] - The average price increase from the current round of highway overload control is conservatively estimated at around 27%, with expectations of a 25% increase in single-vehicle revenue in 2026 compared to 2024 [3]