经观头条｜万颗卫星上天难

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial space industry is facing a significant bottleneck in rocket launch capacity, which is hindering the deployment of satellite constellations necessary for meeting international regulatory deadlines [2][4][11]. Group 1: Market Demand and Challenges - Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. has a budget of 616 million RMB for a rocket launch order, but the bidding process has repeatedly failed due to insufficient qualified suppliers [2][12]. - The urgency for satellite companies is heightened by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) rules, which impose strict deadlines for satellite launches to retain orbital and frequency resources [6][7]. - The total number of satellites planned by Yuanxin and another company has exceeded 30,000, indicating a high demand for launch services [3]. Group 2: Current Launch Capacity - Since 2014, China's private rocket companies have struggled to develop a large-capacity liquid launch vehicle comparable to SpaceX's Falcon 9, which limits the ability to meet the growing demand for satellite launches [3][18]. - The recent bidding failures highlight the lack of sufficient private rocket companies capable of providing the necessary launch services [4][13]. Group 3: Industry Developments - The market is looking towards several private companies, such as Tianbing Technology's "Tianlong 3," Blue Arrow Aerospace's "Zhuque 3," and CASIC's "Lijian 2," which are expected to meet the large-scale constellation deployment needs but have not yet completed their first flight tests [4][22]. - The recent procurement process by Yuanxin has seen the inclusion of three private rocket companies in the supplier list, marking a significant milestone for the industry [11][24]. Group 4: Financial and Production Readiness - The commercial space sector is witnessing increased investment and production readiness, with companies like Platinum Technology and Aerospace Technology reporting significant growth in their production capabilities [10][23]. - The capital market is becoming more accessible for commercial space companies, with some entering the IPO preparatory phase to secure funding for future projects [23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry is at a critical juncture, awaiting the successful first flights of several key rockets, which will be essential for launching the planned satellite constellations and fulfilling market demand [24].