市场是对的，美债曲线正为降息周期定价

Core Insights - The reshaping of the yield curve indicates that interest rates are expected to decline further and remain low [1][7] - The market is re-pricing future interest rate paths, particularly in the short-term segment of the yield curve [1][2] Group 1: Yield Curve Dynamics - As of August 28, the 2-year Treasury yield fell to 3.59%, the lowest since September 27, 2024, indicating a significant downward adjustment in the yield curve [1] - The yield curve has shown a deep inversion in 2023, with the 2-10 year spread reaching record negative values, reflecting market expectations of rising short-term rates due to Federal Reserve rate hikes [4] - The yield curve began to un-invert by the end of August 2024, with the 2-10 year spread turning positive, suggesting a typical "bull steepening" as short-term yields decline faster [4] Group 2: Economic Context - Labor market data indicates a slowdown in job growth, with the Beveridge curve shifting right, suggesting structural weaknesses in the economy [5] - The Federal Reserve acknowledges that labor market risks are greater than inflation risks, aligning with market expectations that economic weakness will prompt rate cuts rather than maintaining high rates [5][6] - Historical patterns show that high debt environments are often associated with low interest rate cycles, as investors seek liquidity and safe assets [3][6] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Demand - Recent Treasury auctions have shown strong demand, countering claims of a "rejection" of U.S. Treasuries, with bidding coverage ratios fluctuating inversely with yields [3][6] - Despite a decrease in participation from pure investors as yields fell from 2023 highs, there has been an increase in demand from safe-haven funds, indicating a persistent preference for U.S. Treasuries [6] - The proportion of foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries remains stable, suggesting that the status of U.S. debt as a reserve asset is unchanged despite high debt levels [6]