【港股一周见】降息交易升温，黄金领涨港股

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw all three major indices rise last week, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.36% to 25,417.98 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.23% to 5,687.45 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 1.22% to 9,057.22 points [1]. Capital Flow - The net inflow for the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai to Hong Kong) over the past five days was +16.62 billion, while the Shenzhen to Hong Kong net inflow was +16.44 billion. Over the past 20 days, the inflow was +44.23 billion for Shanghai and +67.03 billion for Shenzhen. For the last 60 days, the inflow reached +149.06 billion for Shanghai and +181.86 billion for Shenzhen [5]. Sector and Stock Performance - The technology sector exhibited mixed performance, with Alibaba (9988.HK) surging over 18% on Monday, driven by its announcement of a 380 billion capital expenditure and a robust growth target of 1 trillion GMV over the next three years. The integration of AI-driven e-commerce and cloud services further strengthened its narrative [5]. - The robotics sector remained active, with Tesla CEO Elon Musk emphasizing the strategic importance of the humanoid robot Optimus, increasing industry interest. In China, Yushu Technology is expected to submit its IPO application to the Shanghai Stock Exchange in Q4, boosting related high-end manufacturing and medical device stocks, including MicroPort Robotics (2252.HK), which saw a weekly increase of over 30% [5]. - The energy storage sector continued to rise, supported by policies and demand. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's action plan aims to improve product quality and industry structure in the photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors. The demand for energy storage systems is expected to grow significantly, with independent storage shipments projected to increase by nearly 30% year-on-year by 2025. Leading companies like Innovation航 (3931.HK) saw their stock price rise nearly 29% due to strong fundamentals and new partnerships [6]. Gold Market Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll data released last Friday fell short of expectations, with only 22,000 new jobs added, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This has strengthened market bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Gold prices surged, reaching a historical high of over $3,600 per ounce, with Morgan Stanley raising its year-end target price to $3,800 [7]. AI Application Developments - The AI application sector has become a focal point, with the release of Google's new AI model, Nano Banana, which can generate 3D model images from photos. This has raised concerns about the impact on companies like Meitu (1357.HK), which saw its stock drop over 13% on Monday and a total decline of 17% for the week. However, Meitu's core strengths lie in its deep understanding of consumer needs and its focus on niche markets, which may provide resilience against competition from general models [8]. Upcoming IPOs - Two significant IPOs are worth noting: Hesai Group is launching a global offering and dual primary listing in Hong Kong, with a maximum price of HKD 228 per share, raising approximately $148 million. Zijin Gold International is expected to list in Hong Kong this month, aiming to raise over $3 billion, potentially becoming the second-largest IPO globally this year amid high gold prices [8]. Market Outlook - The quarterly review of the Hang Seng Index will take place on September 5, with changes effective from September 8, including the addition of China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart. This may lead to increased trading volume and stock price volatility. Additionally, Apple's upcoming product launch event on September 9-10 is anticipated to boost confidence in the supply chain, potentially leading to a valuation recovery for related stocks [8].