爱玛科技(603529)：业绩符合预期 下半年确定性依然高

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its semi-annual results, which met market expectations, showing significant growth in revenue and net profit [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2, the company achieved revenue of 6.8 billion yuan, representing a 21% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, up 31% [1] - The average single-unit sales revenue growth was 26% in Q1 and 21% in Q2, while the sales volume growth was 19% in Q1 and 17% in Q2 [2] - The average selling price (ASP) increased by 5% in Q1 and 3% in Q2, with single-unit gross profit at 415 yuan in Q1 and 389 yuan in Q2 [2] Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a significant advantage in claiming national subsidies, with over 70% of its stores meeting the qualification requirements [3] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing concentration in the industry [3] Group 3: Outlook for H2 - The regulatory environment is expected to have a limited impact on terminal sales, particularly in second-tier cities [4] - Strong demand is anticipated in Q3 due to dealers stocking up on older standard vehicles, leading to higher channel inventory [4] - The company has over 10 new models ready for the new national standards, expected to launch in September, with an estimated cost increase of 50-100+ yuan per unit [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company expects an acceleration in average selling prices in H2, with strong sales performance anticipated in Q3 and limited impact from new standards in lower-tier cities [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 27.4 billion yuan and 30.7 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 27% and 12% respectively [5] - The projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is 2.6 billion yuan and 3.2 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 32% and 22% [5]