分析师：9月降息几成定局，期权交易员预期股市将平稳运行

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, with market participants anticipating a stable stock market ahead of the CPI data release on Thursday. However, there are risks if inflation data shows unexpected increases [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The logic behind the expected rate cut is straightforward: stagnation in U.S. job growth necessitates economic stimulus [1]. - Weak employment data released on Friday has reinforced the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market reacted mildly to the employment data, with U.S. stocks experiencing a slight decline and the fear index rising slightly, yet remaining below the critical level of 20 [1]. - Since June, the fear index has mostly stayed below the 20 threshold, indicating a relatively stable market sentiment [1]. Group 3: Options Trading Insights - Options traders are betting on a 0.7% two-way volatility for the S&P 500 index following the CPI release, which is lower than the average actual volatility of 1% over the past year [1]. - The current trading logic may overlook significant risks, particularly if inflation data significantly exceeds expectations [1]. Group 4: Expert Commentary - Eric Teal, Chief Investment Officer at Comerica Wealth Management, notes that the current balance in the market is delicate, and any extremely positive or negative data could alter market outlooks [1].