Core Viewpoint - Zhao Zhiyue emphasizes that different sectors have distinct "valuation logic" and there is no "universal formula," only "adaptability" in investment strategies [1][5]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - When selecting dividend stocks, two core indicators are considered: a significant yield spread compared to medium- and long-term government bonds, and sustainable earnings [2][5]. - For cyclical stocks, the focus should be on price-to-book (PB) ratios rather than price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with attention to supply-side dynamics [2][5]. - The investment logic for cyclical stocks requires that demand is not too weak, supply does not experience homogeneous expansion, and investments are made at low PB levels [5]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Trends - AI has emerged as a highlight in the market this year, with investments in hardware stocks like optical modules and PCBs that have performance support [6]. - The selection criteria for AI hardware include whether it is part of an overseas supply chain, if it is a leader in a niche market, and whether the management is not merely "riding the trend" [6]. - The current portfolio maintains a balanced allocation among dividend, cyclical, consumer, and technology sectors, with minor adjustments based on market sentiment [4][7]. Group 3: Market Insights and Historical Context - Zhao's investment career began during a typical "emotion-driven market" in 2015, characterized by loose liquidity and grand narratives [3]. - The transition in Zhao's investment style occurred around 2021, moving from a focus on consumer stocks to a more diversified approach due to diminishing certainty in the consumer sector [3][4]. - Traditional consumer stocks are now viewed as having limited growth potential, with reliance on dividends and macroeconomic options [3]. Group 4: Risk Management and Philosophy - Zhao adheres to two key rules: avoiding overvalued assets driven by economic conditions and not betting on a single position while maintaining flexibility in portfolio structure [7]. - The approach to managing different risk profiles involves a more balanced allocation in certain funds, while others may focus on high-growth areas like AI and robotics, with an emphasis on risk control [7]. - Zhao believes that balanced investment strategies can withstand market volatility better than aggressive, high-risk strategies [7].
上银基金赵治烨：十年均衡之道 不执于一念方得始终
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-09-07 18:40