十大券商一周策略：短期调整接近尾声，上行逻辑仍未改变，资金聚焦高低切

Group 1 - Recent market liquidity characteristics show a clear divergence in ETF fund flows, with broad-based funds decreasing while industry/theme funds are increasing, indicating a high-cut low characteristic in institutional allocation [1] - The market may be entering the last round of intensive subscription and redemption phase for active public funds since 2021, which could alleviate redemption pressure as core assets held by institutions rise [1] - The pressure from high debt funding rates and passive interest rate cuts from central banks coexist, suggesting that China's manufacturing sector may gradually regain pricing power and profit margins in the long term [1] Group 2 - Current market risk appetite is high, supporting equity asset performance, with recommendations to overweight AH shares and US stocks while maintaining bond and gold allocations [2] - A-shares are expected to remain optimistic due to capital market reforms, stable market liquidity, and improving risk preferences, with no significant overheating observed [2] - Incremental economic support measures are anticipated, providing sustainable upward momentum for the Chinese stock market [2] Group 3 - A-share market is experiencing increased volatility due to profit-taking pressures, but the core driving forces for the recent upward trend remain intact [3] - The market is in a phase of resonance inflow from both institutions and individuals, with a focus on low-position themes driven by financing [3] - TMT sectors are expected to remain the main line in the medium to long term, with recommendations to focus on AI, pharmaceuticals, and financial sectors [3] Group 4 - Recent adjustments in the A-share market are viewed as part of an upward trend, with expectations for a low-slope upward movement to continue [4] - The strategy should focus on sectors with low penetration rates, particularly in AI computing, solid-state batteries, and humanoid robots [4] - Mid-year performance revisions are concentrated in TMT, high-end manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals, with specific recommendations for digital chip design and lithium batteries [4] Group 5 - The current market is in a consolidation phase after a slow bull market, with a focus on high-low switching during this period [5] - The core logic of AI computing remains valid, with recommendations to pay attention to sectors like new energy and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - The market is expected to experience a healthy rhythm of incremental funds post-adjustment [5] Group 6 - A-share market is likely to continue a trend of oscillation and upward movement, with a focus on short-term volatility risks [6] - Growth sectors have shown high prosperity, and industries like machinery and power equipment may have rebound potential [6] - Attention should be given to low-position sectors benefiting from policy support and the "anti-involution" concept [6] Group 7 - Current market volatility remains high, with a likelihood of entering a sideways consolidation phase [7] - Focus on new directions such as power equipment and non-ferrous metals for future opportunities [7] - The performance of gold stocks is expected to be more elastic compared to gold prices due to their current low valuation [7] Group 8 - A-share market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with potential sector rotations within prosperous segments [8] - Hong Kong stocks are becoming more attractive due to expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [8] - The AI industry remains a mid-term focus, with attention on sectors with improving fundamentals and potential catalysts [8] Group 9 - The long-term trend for indices remains optimistic, with a focus on structural investment over overall market performance [9] - The current investment strategy emphasizes a dual-driven market, prioritizing technology sectors [9] - For investors seeking lower-position varieties, sectors like gaming and internet are recommended [9] Group 10 - High turnover rates indicate potential short-term adjustment pressures in the market [10] - Historical patterns suggest that high turnover during a bull market can lead to structural shifts and consolidation [10] - The market is expected to see style rotation as policy expectations evolve, particularly in the fourth quarter [10]