疲软非农点燃降息预期 本周通胀数据成美联储下一步行动关键

Economic Overview - The U.S. stock market closed lower last Friday due to a weak non-farm payroll report for August, indicating a significant cooling in the job market and raising concerns about the U.S. economy [1] - Following the release of the August non-farm payroll report, the market now anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Employment Market - The August non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 new jobs added, marking the weakest job market since the pandemic began [2] - Excluding healthcare, the total employment has seen negative growth for the first time in 25 years, except during recession periods [4] - The healthcare sector has been the primary source of job growth in recent months, but it is now also experiencing a noticeable decline [4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Economists expect the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise by 2.9% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, indicating limited progress in curbing inflation [2] - The core CPI, excluding volatile items like food and energy, is projected to increase by 3.1% year-over-year, remaining consistent with July's levels [2] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of achieving full employment and maintaining a 2% inflation rate is under pressure due to the current economic conditions [2] Consumer Sentiment - The upcoming Michigan University Consumer Sentiment Index for September will provide insights into consumer psychology amid a slowing job market and uncertain inflation outlook [1] - Despite a relatively low unemployment rate of 4.32%, there is growing concern among workers about future job losses, which negatively impacts consumer confidence [4]