长盛基金郭堃：穿越市场周期的均衡成长之道

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment philosophy and strategies of Guo Kun, a balanced growth-style fund manager, who focuses on long-term sustainable excess returns through industry diversification and selective growth stock picking [1][3][8]. Investment Strategy - Guo Kun employs a "balanced investment style" that does not require precise market timing or sector rotation, making it suitable for ordinary investors [1][10]. - His investment framework consists of three layers: position management, asset and industry allocation, and internal comparisons within growth sectors [8][9]. - The core of his strategy is to maintain a stable position around 85%, adjusting only slightly in extreme market conditions [8]. Performance Metrics - Historical data shows that Guo Kun's managed portfolios consistently rank in the top 30%-40% of the market, with some periods in the top 10% [1][10]. - Over the past five years, funds like Changsheng Manufacturing Select have achieved net value growth rates between 10%-20%, outperforming most short-term champions [1][10]. Market Outlook - Guo Kun holds an optimistic view of the market towards 2025, identifying AI and innovative pharmaceuticals as key investment areas [2][11]. - He believes the current bull market is driven by a solid economic foundation, ongoing liquidity, and strong industrial momentum, particularly in AI [11][12]. Sector Focus - The focus on AI encompasses various sectors, including communications, electronics, media, and computing, with an emphasis on applications rather than just upstream capabilities [12]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is highlighted as a strong performer, with significant growth potential despite recent price increases [13]. Team Collaboration - Guo Kun emphasizes the importance of team collaboration in enhancing research capabilities, implementing a multi-tiered research discussion system to keep information current [7][4]. - The team’s synergy has led to the identification of high-quality stocks across various sectors, contributing to the overall success of the investment strategy [6][4].