Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-08 00:08Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll growth in August has nearly stagnated, falling significantly short of market expectations, while the unemployment rate has risen to a four-year high, indicating a notable cooling in the job market [1] Economic Indicators - The data intensifies market concerns regarding a potential U.S. economic recession [1] - The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have declined as a result of the employment data [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have been adjusted upwards, with the implied probability of a rate cut in September remaining at 100% [1] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year has increased from 2.4 to 2.8, indicating at least two rate cuts are expected [1] - The probability of three rate cuts has risen from 40% to 80% [1]