Core Insights - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness in August, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.324%, up from 4.248% in July, aligning with market expectations [1] - Non-farm payrolls in August significantly underperformed expectations, indicating a downturn in both government and private sector employment [1] - Broader employment data, including ADP and PMI employment components, also reflected a weakening trend, suggesting that the U.S. labor market is not as robust as previously indicated [1] - The overall economic conditions are deteriorating, but a recession is not imminent [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to face increased risks regarding the labor market, leading to a forecasted interest rate cut of 25 basis points in September, with additional cuts anticipated in October and December [1]
中信证券:非农数据再度走弱 美联储年内三次降息概率上升