非电煤和电煤接力换棒，秋季煤炭布局稳扎稳打行业周报

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a slight price decline, but there are positive factors that may support a rebound in coal prices, particularly in the non-electric coal sector during the upcoming demand season [1][2]. Group 1: Coal Price Trends - As of September 5, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 679 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton or 1.59% from the previous period [2]. - The current price is below 700 RMB/ton, following a rebound above this level [2]. - The market is transitioning from summer to autumn, with expectations for increased non-electric coal demand in September and October [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is at a low level of 79.5%, down 0.4 percentage points as of August 31 [2]. - Port inventories are decreasing, with the inventory in the Bohai Rim at 22.66 million tons, down 1.48% as of September 5, and Guangzhou Port inventory declining by over 7% [2]. - Non-electric coal demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is expected to increase, with methanol operating rates at 83.72%, up 1.41 percentage points [2]. Group 3: Coking Coal Market - As of September 5, the price of coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1540 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in early July [2]. - Coking coal futures have seen a significant increase, rising from 719 RMB in early June to 1159 RMB, a cumulative increase of 61.2% [2]. - The coking coal market is characterized by strong expectations but weak realities, with supply tightening due to regulatory measures [2]. Group 4: Investment Logic - The price of thermal coal is expected to rebound to long-term contract prices, currently above 700 RMB, with a target of around 750 RMB by 2025 [3]. - The breakeven point for power plants is estimated at around 860 RMB, which could serve as a price ceiling [3]. - The price ratio of coking coal to thermal coal is 2.4, with target prices for coking coal set at 1608 RMB, 1680 RMB, 1800 RMB, and 2064 RMB corresponding to thermal coal price targets [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is seen as having both cyclical and dividend attributes, making it a favorable time for investment [5]. - Four main investment lines are identified: - Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 - Metallurgical coal: 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 - Dividend potential: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversified growth: 神火股份, 电投能源, 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5].