“黑天鹅”突袭！刚刚，直线跳水！

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has led to significant fluctuations in the Japanese yen and stock market, indicating heightened political instability in Japan and potential market volatility [1][2][5]. Political Developments - Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) during a press conference, stating he would take responsibility until a new leader is elected [3][4]. - The LDP is expected to hold a leadership election soon, with candidates having 1-2 weeks for campaigning, and the new leader will be confirmed as Prime Minister by the National Diet [4][5]. - Key candidates include Sanae Takaichi and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, with Takaichi currently leading in polls [4][5]. Market Reactions - Following Ishiba's resignation, the Japanese stock market saw gains, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 1.81% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index increasing by 1.05% [3]. - The yen experienced a sharp decline, with the USD/JPY exchange rate increasing by 0.79% shortly after the announcement [2]. Trade Agreement Details - The recently implemented US-Japan trade agreement includes a significant investment commitment from Japan, amounting to $550 billion, with details on governance and profit distribution emerging [6][7]. - The agreement stipulates that the US President will have final decision-making authority over investment projects, and Japan could face new tariffs if it refuses to fund selected projects [7][8]. - A unique profit-sharing mechanism is established, where profits from investments will initially be split 50/50 until Japan recoups its initial investment, after which the US will receive 90% of profits [7][8]. Strategic Investment Focus - The $550 billion investment is targeted at key strategic sectors identified by Washington, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, shipbuilding, energy, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing [8].