陶冬：滞胀魅影浮现，鲍威尔又错了？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September, with the decision hinging on upcoming CPI data, and the potential for a significant cut of either 25 or 50 basis points [1][2] - The U.S. labor market showed disappointing performance in August, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [1][2] - The weak employment data suggests a high probability of economic recession, especially as the three-month average job growth is below 50,000, which historically indicates recession risks [1][2] Group 2 - The sectors most affected by poor employment performance include IT, financial services, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, with a notable impact on high-income white-collar jobs [2] - Despite the downturn, wage growth continues, and labor participation rates have increased, indicating some resilience in the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to reassess economic risks due to the weak labor market, making employment a more critical focus in their dual mandate [2][3] Group 3 - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 are anticipated to be heavily influenced by economic conditions, with the economy serving as a key factor in voter sentiment [3][4] - The major economic issues at stake include the "Build Back Better" plan and the tariff war, with their impacts on prices, employment, and income being crucial for electoral outcomes [4][5] - Republican strategies include redistricting efforts to gain an advantage in the House of Representatives, while Democrats face challenges in maintaining their traditional strongholds [5]