国补发放加速 储能电芯涨价 | 投研报告

Group 1: Energy Storage Market - The domestic new energy storage project procurement scale reached 56.1GW/213.8GWh from January to July 2025, with actual storage system demand at 53.1GW/208.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 181% [1][5] - The average prices of square lithium iron phosphate storage cells (100Ah, 280Ah, 314Ah) as of September 5, 2025, were 0.370, 0.298, and 0.298 yuan/Wh respectively, showing a slight increase [1][4] - The overseas storage orders signed by Chinese companies exceeded 160GWh from January to June 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 220.28% [5] Group 2: Renewable Energy Subsidies - The renewable energy subsidies distributed from January to August 2025 significantly exceeded expectations, with the amount received in August alone accounting for approximately 70% of the total subsidies for the first eight months [2][3] - The subsidies cover both renewable energy generation and biomass power generation enterprises, aligning with the renewable energy fund's coverage [2] Group 3: Financial Improvement for Companies - The significant recovery of accounts receivable is expected to improve cash flow and restore company valuations, addressing previous market concerns regarding declining electricity prices and accounts receivable risks [3] - Companies such as Datang New Energy, China Power, and Longyuan Power are recommended based on the potential for improved cash flow from accounts receivable recovery [3] Group 4: Capacity Utilization and Market Outlook - Companies like CATL reported a battery system capacity utilization rate of 89.86% in the 2025 mid-year report, a notable increase from previous periods [5] - The capital market is expected to recover from previous pessimistic expectations regarding storage demand, leading to potential dual upgrades in performance expectations and valuation levels for storage-related stocks [6]