欧洲烯烃产能削减浪潮奔涌

Group 1 - The European petrochemical industry has experienced an unprecedented wave of olefin capacity reductions over the past 18 months, with seven steam cracker plants permanently closed or planned to be shut down by the end of 2027, significantly altering the regional supply landscape [1] - The closed or planned cracker plants have a combined ethylene capacity of approximately 4.5 million tons per year, along with propylene capacity of 2.3 million tons and butadiene capacity of 430,000 tons [1] - The number of existing ethylene plants in Europe is expected to fall below 50, with projections indicating a decrease to 48 plants by 2026 and further to 46 by 2029, compared to 60 plants in 2015 with a total design capacity exceeding 26 million tons per year [1] Group 2 - Major companies like Shell and SABIC are planning to reassess and optimize their European asset portfolios, which include four cracker plants in the Netherlands, Germany, and the UK with a total ethylene capacity of 2.6 million tons per year [2] - BP is seeking buyers for its integrated refining and petrochemical assets in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, while Dow has announced the permanent closure of its 510,000 tons per year mixed feed cracker in Germany by Q4 2027 [2] - The closures are a response to ongoing industry challenges, with Shell's CEO indicating a focus on evaluating underperforming global chemical assets and considering selective shutdowns in Europe [2] Group 3 - SABIC's CEO emphasized the need to optimize the asset portfolio and does not rule out exiting certain markets due to the pressing need to reduce costs [3] - Dow's CEO revealed that the board has approved the closure of three chemical plants in Europe to adjust regional capacity and mitigate commercial sales risks [3] - The current operating rate of European cracker plants is around 75%, and the reduction of 4.5 million tons per year in ethylene capacity is expected to help increase the operating rate to approximately 85% by 2030, promoting market balance [3]