智通财经网·2025-09-08 02:57Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually recover as seasonal demand shifts, with inventory likely entering a reduction phase. The supply side is beginning to clear due to prolonged industry losses, indicating a potential improvement in the steel industry's fundamentals. Long-term trends suggest increased industry concentration and high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [1][3]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Steel demand has decreased, with apparent consumption of five major steel products at 8.2783 million tons, down 299,400 tons week-on-week. Inventory rose to 15.007 million tons, an increase of 328,200 tons. The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 80.4%, down 2.8 percentage points [1]. - The average gross profit for rebar was 179.4 CNY/ton, down 52 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled coil gross profit was 135.4 CNY/ton, down 36 CNY/ton. The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 61.04%, a decrease of 2.6% [2]. - The real estate sector's ongoing decline is expected to reduce its negative impact on steel demand, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to grow steadily. Steel exports maintained year-on-year growth from January to July [3]. Supply Expectations - The steel industry has been experiencing losses since Q3 2022, with nearly 40% of steel companies still in the red. The recent policy framework aims to reduce production while supporting advanced enterprises and phasing out inefficient capacities [3]. - The expectation for supply contraction remains, with the steel industry's fundamentals likely to improve gradually [3]. Long-term Outlook and Recommendations - The long-term trend indicates that industry concentration will increase, promoting high-quality development. Companies with superior product structures and cost advantages are expected to benefit significantly. Leading companies will have enhanced competitive advantages and profitability due to stricter environmental regulations and carbon neutrality initiatives [4]. - Recommended companies include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Shougang, and low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel. Additionally, companies with competitive advantages and high dividends such as CITIC Special Steel and Yongjin Co., as well as high-barrier material companies, are highlighted [4].