中信证券：非农数据再度走弱 年内三次降息概率上升

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with August non-farm payroll data significantly below expectations, indicating a cooling trend in the economy [1] Employment Data Summary - The unemployment rate rose to 4.248% in July and 4.324% in August, with a one-decimal unemployment rate recorded at 4.3%, aligning with market expectations [1] - August's non-farm employment growth was substantially lower than anticipated, with both government and private sectors showing weakness [1] - Additional employment indicators, including ADP and PMI employment components, also reflected a comprehensive decline in the U.S. job market [1] Federal Reserve Implications - The ongoing risks in the employment market suggest a potential upward trend in risks for the Federal Reserve [1] - The company maintains its previous stance, predicting that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, followed by further reductions of 25 basis points in October and December [1]