Run And Sell Adobe Stock Before Its Earnings?

Core Insights - Adobe is expected to report earnings on September 11, 2025, with historical trends indicating a tendency for the stock to decline post-earnings, with a 75% occurrence rate of declines over the past five years, averaging a 6.3% drop [2][3] Earnings Projections - Analysts forecast Adobe's earnings at $5.18 per share on sales of $5.9 billion, reflecting growth from the previous year's earnings of $4.65 per share and revenue of $5.4 billion [3] - The subscription business remains strong, but revenue growth in generative AI has been slower than expected, which will be clarified in the upcoming earnings report [3] Financial Performance - Adobe has a market capitalization of $148 billion and generated $23 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with operating profits of $8.2 billion and a net income of $6.9 billion [4] Historical Earnings Reaction - Over the last five years, Adobe has experienced 20 earnings data points, with only 5 resulting in positive one-day returns, indicating a 25% success rate for positive returns [7] - The median positive return from these occurrences was 3.0%, while the median negative return was -6.3% [7] Post-Earnings Return Analysis - The correlation between one-day and five-day post-earnings returns can provide insights for traders, with strategies suggesting going long if the one-day return is positive [8] - Historical data shows that the correlation between one-day and five-day returns can guide trading decisions, especially when the correlation is strong [8]