老登别酸”！买方大佬和分析师“互怼”，千亿龙头跌“懵了

Core Viewpoint - The recent skepticism surrounding the optimistic profit forecasts for Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) highlights the volatility and uncertainty in the AI computing power sector, particularly in the optical module industry, which is currently experiencing a boom due to global AI investment expansion [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Zhongji Xuchuang has transformed from a highly sought-after stock to a controversial topic following public doubts about its projected net profit of over 25 billion yuan by 2027 [1][2]. - The optical module industry, including companies like New Yisheng (300502) and Tianfu Communication (300394), is riding the wave of AI investment, with Zhongji Xuchuang being a key player [2][3]. - The stock price of Zhongji Xuchuang surged from 77.87 yuan to 369.99 yuan within a few months, marking a staggering increase of 375.14% [3]. Group 2: Profit Forecasts and Analyst Reactions - The skepticism from Ling Peng centers on two main assumptions: the certainty of capacity expansion and the maintenance of current profit margins without price reductions [4]. - Despite the skepticism, Guosheng Securities has raised its profit forecasts for Zhongji Xuchuang, predicting net profits of 9.51 billion yuan, 15.49 billion yuan, and 19.82 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 47.5, 29.2, and 22.8 [8]. - The latest profit forecasts from Guosheng Securities represent a significant upward revision from earlier estimates, reflecting the growing importance of communication technology in the AI sector [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Risks - Zhongji Xuchuang reported impressive revenue growth, with revenues of 9.64 billion yuan, 10.72 billion yuan, 23.86 billion yuan, and 14.79 billion yuan for the first halves of 2022-2025, alongside net profits of 1.23 billion yuan, 2.21 billion yuan, 5.37 billion yuan, and 4.24 billion yuan [10]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 39.33% in the first half of 2025, up 6.19 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 28.69%, also showing a year-on-year increase [11]. - However, rising accounts receivable and inventory levels pose potential risks, with accounts receivable reaching 6.35 billion yuan, 59.32% higher than the previous year, and inventory increasing by 48.61% to 9.17 billion yuan [11][12]. Group 4: Shareholder Actions - There has been a notable increase in shareholding reductions by key executives and shareholders, with significant amounts being sold in 2023, totaling 3.7 billion yuan, which is 167% of the company's net profit for the year [13]. - The timing of these reductions has raised concerns, as they often coincide with stock price declines shortly after the sales [14]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - The ongoing boom in the optical module sector is juxtaposed with the challenges of maintaining profitability and managing inventory effectively, which will be critical for Zhongji Xuchuang's long-term success [15].