QBTS Tops IONQ, RGTI in 1H25 But Valuation Stretched: Buy Now or Wait?

Core Insights - D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) demonstrated significant progress in the first half of 2025, achieving scientific validation and commercial traction, highlighted by a landmark system sale and quantum supremacy in real-world applications [1][3] - The company is advancing its scalability roadmap, collaborating with NASA JPL for cryogenic packaging and integrating quantum AI with PyTorch, indicating a strong focus on infrastructure and developer ecosystems [2][9] Financial Performance - QBTS shares surged 74.2% in the first half of 2025, outperforming its industry, sector, and the S&P 500 index, while also surpassing competitors IonQ and Rigetti Computing [6][8] - The first quarter of 2025 saw record revenues of $15 million, primarily from a one-time system sale, while the second quarter normalized to $3.1 million, reflecting a 42% year-over-year increase [11] - The adjusted gross margin was strong at 93.6% in Q1 and 71.8% in Q2, with the adjusted EBITDA loss narrowing to $26.1 million from $26.8 million year-over-year [12][13] Product Development and Market Adoption - The Advantage2 processor was launched in Q2 2025, featuring over 4,400 qubits, marking a significant performance improvement [7] - The Leap LaunchPad program has tested over 1,300 applications since January 2025, indicating strong engagement from developers across various industries [10] Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 68% increase in earnings and a 181.5% rise in revenues for QBTS in 2025 compared to 2024 [14] - Despite strong technological advancements and a solid cash position of over $300 million, QBTS is currently viewed as overvalued with a forward price/sales ratio of 153.44X, significantly above its historical median [17][20]